The article "Using Asian Handicap to Win at Betting Football" is about casino gambling, it has been released by J Armstrong.
Background
Odds and their movements present a unique opportunity to gauge
what the bookie thinks and how the markets react to them.
Although the position that bookmakers take in public relations
exercises is that they stand to make the most when there is an
equal amount of bets on both teams in a match, the reality is
that sometimes bookmakers guess that a certain outcome is likely
and use the odds as a psychological tool to draw the public into
betting on the team they guess will lose.
As the public likes to bet on favourites most times and these
favourites do not lose or draw ofetn enough for the bookmakers'
appetite, it makes sense that they use that psychological
function mostly in Asian Handicap odds.
Considering how bookmakers always win from the general betting
public in the long run, it is wise to piggyback on the bookies'
predictions by considering how they market the odds.
Exploiting the Odds You can tell what the bookie is trying to
achieve from the early odds. If the top of the table-team is
giving a ½ ball handicap to the number two team in the table, it
is too high.
The bookie is seducing you to bet on the underdog.
How do you tell if peolpe have fallen for the trap?
Study the movement of the odds. Study it over two or three days.
Check for large trends once or twice a day for three days and
check the odds a last time an hour or two just before the match.
You can tell that most of the public are bteting on a team when
the cost and odds on the team gets less favourable. Take note
of heavy action where odds or prices have huge movements.
Normally, the bookie likes to lay traps on favourites and
popular teams which the public likes to bet on. So look out for
favourable opening or early odds on these teams which eventually
climb to normal levels when the match is about to start. (This
take experience and study.) Check match fatcs against the
odds movements.
Check for Class, Form, Motivation and other
factors as described in THE GUIDE.
Is there something that most
of the public wouldn't know? If the non-favourite team exhibits
traits that could help them win (or draw) or if the favourite
team has factors going agianst them, bet on the underdog
just like the bookie, when the betting public is going heavy on
the favourites.
The Other Parties Involved
That was the most common scenario. However, there is other
parties aronud - huge timers with inside knowledge, betting
syndicates, match-fixers, etc who are not necessarily friendly
to the bookie.
Sometimes, the huge odd movements are cuased by these parties
(less often) and not by the betting public.
When you see
particularly heavy betting on weak teams, check the various
factors and if you realise there's no reason for it, be aware of
such 'big boy' actoin going on. In that case, go with the flow
of the betitng.
That is, bet on those teams which are being bet
heavily on. How do you make sure that the hevay betting is by
these huge boys in the know? Check out the forums. If everyone
there seems to say they are betting on one team but the betting
odds prove that money is being poured on the other, you will
know that the heavy betting is not done by the Joe Publics. The
bookies need to let the pubilc win sometimes. When? When the
action is low.
When you see little action on popular favourites
from the odds movement and the asian handicap is reasonably high
against the favourites, you might choose to bet on the
favourites then.
Examples
Note: For the study of odds movements, we approach match
analysis with a conspiracy theory kind of angle and assume that
bookmakers have insider knowledge or are almost able to know
outcomes of gmaes based on connections or highly qualified
handicappers, researchers etc on their payroll or both.
Example 1.
EPL Match Day: 19 Mar 2005
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace 2.05 0 : 1 3/4 1.85
Analysis
Chelsea was giivng the same 1.75 handicap to West Brom the
previous EPL fixture and won the game 1-0 with a single goal
from Didier Drogba. Chelsea was then leading the table with 8
points more than the nearest contender for the title, Man U.
Expectations was that Chelsea wuold trash WBA, who was a
relegation struggler. The very high and rtaher rare handicap of
1.75 given by the bookies seemed to confirm that fact. Punters
lapped that up, confident of a sound trashing of WBA by Chelsea
and bet on Cehlsea despite the high handicap.
Ever notice how
top teams quite often (not always) beat bottom ones by small
margins? Chelsea won 1-0.
Knowing that the memory of that was still fresh in the minds of
punters, bookmakers posted the same opening handicap for Chelsea
the following week at 1.75.
Naturally, punters shied away from
backing Chelsea that time, afraid of a similar scorelnie with
another relegation struggler, Crystal Palace.
Some of them even
bet on Palace, evidenced by slightly dropping prices on the
underdog, thinking perhaps Chlesea were losing their form. This
was even though they had won their previous game.
Score?
Chelsea 4, Palace 1.
The bookies met two objectives with that match. They confused
the public with the same hanidcap and the same team at different
times and the favourites won heavily without much betting on
them.
Punters missed that opportunity to win from betting on
their favourites but they noticed the scoreline and regained
their confidence in the favourite again.
Try not to get trapped
in that hidden but vicious cycle.
Take note however, that on any matchday, three is seldom the
case that all the favourites fail to clear the handicap, even
when the public is betting heavily on them. Some will clear and
some won't most mtach days.
It is up to you to identify them
based on researching the usual factors and the odds.
Example 2
UEFA Match Day: 17 Mar 2005
Sporting Lissabon vs Middelsbrough 2.05 0 : 1/2 1.85
When you see odds like these, you first have to recognize
certain factors outside the movements of these odds.
Middlesbrough is an upper mid-table team in the English Premier
League, the most popular league worldwide.
Sporting Lisbon is a
fine team from Portugal but relatively unknown when compared to
Middlebrough even though they have produced of the best
known names in football currently like Luis Figo and Cristiano
Ronaldo.
People tend to bet on teams they know and guess of less heard-of
teams as not up to par. We reason, 'Hey, if they're that good, I
would have heard more of them, right? '
Well, we do not know the answer to that but we know that when a
relatively well-known team is given a 0.5 handicap by a
less-popular team, everybody bets on the popular team, confident
that they can at least draw with the 'obscure' team.
Sporting Lisbon had won the previous reverse fixture 3-2.
Punters were sure Boro would go all out to win that match to
avoid disqualification from the UEFA Cup. Well, if so, why were
the bookies so kind as to awrad Boro a 1/2-ball handicap?
This is the psychological function of the odds used to the
fullest by the bookmakers to fool the public.
A chcek with the
odds confirm that prices on Middlesbrough are getting lower.
We do not know what the bookies know but the final score?
Sporting 1 Boro 0.
Example 3
SPL Match Day 20 Mar 2005
190305 Valencia vs Getafe 2.00 0 : 1 1.90
200305 Valencia vs Getafe 1.975 0 : 1 1.925
Valencia was 6th and Getafe 13th on the Primrea Liga table. A
one-ball handicap was a lot to give for a sepraation of just 7
places.
Valencia had just lost their last game and Getafe was getting
known as a giant-killer, beating Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao
and drawing with Deportivo and Real Betis last month the previous
four games.
You have to question just why Valencia was giving a one-ball
handicap when Getafe was in hot form. There the bookies go again.
Not much movement in the odds (above) to recommend hevay backing
of Valencia by the public to warrant such a handicap.
Verdict: Bet Valencia
Final Score: Valencia 3 Getafe 1
Conclusion
There is no such thing as a foolproof method. Sometimes, even
the bookies/big boys make mistakes or events occur which have
not been expected. Also, sometimes the huge bookies intentionally
let the public have a good week or two (rarer and rarer though)
- to let losses wipe out the smaller bookies and throw off
anyone who's on to their game.
On the whole, however, it is a very accurtae way to predict
winners based on the number of winning bets that has produced
for pro-bettors.
Remember that mastering that is something
of an artform and takes time and experience to get good at.
Hone your analytical skills and try to guess like the bookie.
This is not for eevry match so just be on the lookout for
unusual activity.
As always, when unsure, lay off. .
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